UN report: Middle East escalation could reverse last year’s growth

A new UNDP report warns that the ongoing Middle East military escalation, now in its fifth week, could cost the region 3.7–6% of GDP—up to $194 billion—and push up to 4 million people into poverty. Unemployment could rise by 4 percentage points, or 3.6 million jobs, exceeding jobs created in 2025.

The report highlights the region’s structural vulnerabilities, showing that even a short conflict can have lasting socioeconomic impacts. Human development could decline by 0.2–0.4%, wiping out roughly half a year to a year of progress.

UNDP urges Arab states to diversify economies beyond hydrocarbons, strengthen trade and logistics, and expand economic partnerships to reduce vulnerability to shocks. Using five simulation scenarios, the study models disruptions from increased trade costs, productivity losses, and capital destruction under escalating conflict.

Credit : CGTN